Signs a US Revolution is Near

Those who squint their eyes can see that within America, the tone is shifting from left-right to up versus down. A turning point is visible in media signals and language, while tentatively the word revolution is appearing, all in the context of an economic storm building. So, today I give you an outsider perspective on the narrative shift that could change everything from within the USA itself, as signs of an uprising grow.

Even South Park (image credited) is weighing in with Project 2029...

This blog was also published on Medium.

A shift is visible

On local, independent media channels and social media, countless videos of ICE operations circulate daily. These are increasingly also trickling into mainstream media. The actions resemble razzia’s as we called them in World War Two here in Europe: arrests are made with excessive force and always without the constitutionally required identification, with even neo-Nazi tattoos appearing under the camouflaged outfits of these agents.

From where I’m writing in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, a literal stone’s throw away from the Anne Frank House, I have the luxury of historical distance to it all. You might not even see it at first when you're up close to it. Especially because you've been trained, even honed, to see everything through the lens of left versus right. Yet my distance has allowed me to see a very notable shift in these media signals that surprisingly indicates more of a revolution than you’d think. And that story starts with these videos of ICE raids.

You see, more than 90% of those arrested actually have legal residency status and no criminal record (traffic violations excluded), alongside tourists, students, US-born citizens, and minors who are picked up and risk disappearing into an obscure, deadly private prison system without due process. Even a congressman, a union leader, and a judge were arrested, alongside a senator, mayoral candidate, and a large group of veterans. Veterans I might add, who were protesting the very army they themselves served, deployed against them on US streets.

The story Americans tell themselves

Many Trump voters, who all of a sudden have lost their immigrant employees to these raids, are also capturing all this on their phone cameras. And farmers especially, traditionally leaning more conservative, are struggling up to the point of bankruptcy and default, and have become more vocal against the administration that has put them in this dire position in a matter of months. As a result, the first real resistance is rising very slowly (percentages of support trickling down) but also very surely (they don’t go up anymore) on the ‘red’ side as well. A good example here is the fire department very publicly supporting the protests against ICE.

What we see is that the story Americans tell themselves is quite literally changing in the wording. The word fascist as a description of Trump loyalists has become widely accepted, while words such as gestapo, kidnapping, abduction, concentration camps, and references like Alligator Auschwitz and Jim Crow 2.0 are everywhere. You get used to these words and ideas quickly, and on the streets you may have heard them before. But just a few months ago, in what was already a bitterly divided country, they still really were not that commonplace in the media at all.

Most notable of them all, is that the word 'dictatorship' is now replacing the word 'authoritarian'. While in newspaper columns, we witness more silence about these raids than what you’d expect from the usually much more vocal intellectual right.

And all of this has a very good reason.

Economy is driving the change

The protests are taking place in an even larger context, that number one American issue that no politician ever wants to get wrong: the economy.

The damage from the tariffs is already significant with tourism plummeting and basically all consumers around the world buying less American products, with the administration barely having any deals at this time of writing: of the 60 deals needed, only the UK is covered (later editing correction: come September a total of 8 deals of the 60 are now done). And deal or no deal, every sale starts with at least a 10% tariff but could go as high as 70%, that is directly paid by the American people, culling consumer spending. An effect that Americans, in poll after poll, are very aware of. 

Here too, the social media signs are making a notable shift with something new: store videos. Ordinary Americans — the kind that are not particularly prone to protesting or political debates — make daily videos on the pricing hikes they see, some as high as 37% in just one month. And if there is one thing I know about America, is that hurting voters in their wallets is not going to go down well. 

But that’s ‘just’ inflation. Tens of millions of pensioners and retirees, veterans, LGBTQ+, medical personnel, Medicaid and student loan recipients, alongside small and medium businesses will also be affected by the new law (Big Beautiful Bill). The bill favors the wealthy with tax cuts, and even crazy stuff like tax deductions on private airplanes, while eliminating middle-class benefits. This is already leading to the closures of hundreds of healthcare facilities and hospitals across the entire country. Yet especially in red states. This goes up to the point where tens of millions of people will no longer be able to support themselves and their loved ones and have no legal remedy… other than hitting the streets in rage. 

Especially in heartland circles, who’ve reluctantly come to rely on Biden’s sustainability-focused infrastructure bill and Obama’s Affordable Care Act, living in areas where economies already struggle from the decisions of Republicans and Democrats decades ago, the blows will become gut-punches when these cuts sink in. All in all, it’s not a stretch to say that these wallet-crushing moves might make more people angry.

The long-term prospects are even worse. Trust in job reports after the administrations firing of its job-chief, after they didn’t like the result, is down. The bread-and-butter of US growth — its incubation of successful startups—is under heavy fire because of the administrations attack on ‘wokeness’ in universities, leading to a general decline in investment activity, and already (in only 6 months!) a flow of international talent towards Europe.  

Inflation reduction, economic policy and the separation of economic powers with the Federal Reserve are all in the balance, while in the background the deficit is reaching terribly unhealthy heights, the dollar is plunging and stagflation is on the horizon. Typical recession indicators such as pizza being priced too high for low income households, are also rising across the board. 

And no matter how many ‘chiefs’ of economic institutions the administration tries to fire, the downturn story can’t be brushed under the rug that easily... when you’re staring at an 18 dollar bottle of tomato sauce. 

The story tilts

The ICE razzias themselves also have an unprecedented economic impact, with crops rotting because migrants aren’t processing them, while the distribution networks themselves rely on migrants as well. Toilets in hotels aren't being scrubbed anymore, deliveries are late... an entire workforce on the low end of the economy is being scrapped. Which will 'trickle up'. And none of these jobs will be replaced by American workers any time soon, if ever, meaning no one knows what the ceiling for food prices will be or the shortages for cleaners. Not surprisingly, all of this is driving inflation into uncharted waters that no economist can really grasp, let alone predict.

The popular majority has now realized what’s going on, including the highest budget deficit ever coming from that bill, alongside the inflation, the empty shelves, and stagnating or declining housing prices, most notably in the ‘redder’ areas on the map. 

As such, the bill is seen as a bad idea by roughly two-thirds of the people and is down to basically minus 30 points in approval, which is a crazy number in what is supposed to be a 50–50 divided political climate.

One could even argue now that the ‘even split’ is now tilted with unprecedented approval ratings negative in 15 states that the president won, and rising.

Losing the narrative

As a result, the Trump administration has lost the narrative. ICE has become the spark that ignites much broader discontent. This is now exacerbated by inexplicable war maneuvers that seem more about creating a distraction than anything else, and have led to heated debate among the far right who were firmly promised no more conflicts. Crucially, the ‘war distraction tactic’ no longer works like it did in the past, with the right wing just as hesitant as the left, and the ‘hawks’ isolated, or even publicly ridiculed by the America First faction, such as Ted Cruz getting a lashing by Tucker Carlson on the subject of Iran. And yes, polls took a nosedive on that. Especially amongst conservatives.

Protests against Trump show a hockey stick curve compared to his first term, while in that first term, large protests were already the norm. There are now protests going on everyday, in every state in America, sustained into actions such as hundreds of veterans doing a sit-in against the deployment of the National Guard, their former colleagues no less. 

In town halls, Republicans are laughed at, jeered and heckled, especially — and surprisingly — in deep red states. Such as in Florida, where in the Miami Deed county concerned citizens were able to ward off combining ICE with local police forces, during a two hour stand off with their local representatives, who were dead set on extending that power. Even in crimson red places, the furor is so tangible, most Republican representatives do not dare even giving a town hall anymore.

Of course, the administration also sometimes succeeds in their authoritarian steps. They record wins on many battles too, in their tactic to ‘flood the zone’ with as many attacks on democracy and economy as they can muster up. There are battles won. But are they winning their self proclaimed war? 

I cannot say for certain a yes or a no. But I will say this: they've lost the narrative. With so many different media signals out there, their side of the story isn’t sticking. Even on Fox News the - mostly economic - cracks are showing. It is therefore not surprising that the government’s last remaining positive approval rating, on immigration, has now also entered into negative territory, with that pitiful handful of people at Trump’s military birthday parade a particularly jarring sign that his electoral win really wasn’t about him becoming a strongman… but much more — as usual in the US — about the economy.

The people against the elite

On that same day of course, the largest recorded protest movement in US history turned against the administration. People everywhere are joining the ‘No Kings’ 50501 protests which for the first time in history operates in all 50 states, every weekend, for months already. And here we see the first truly open sign of a real, textbook revolution: their goal is to peacefully remove the president. Of note is that they are mobilizing the mathematical and historical turnout needed for depositions by the people of their leaders (roughly between 3,5 and 7% of a population). Even as it has now seemingly reached that point, it continues to grow further.

Then there’s the South Park meme inspired Project 2029 — a jab at the extreme-right Project 2025 now in effect — demanding politically independent and large-scale constitutional changes. This includes an end to the lifetime appointment for Supreme Court justices and the elimination of the ancient Roman era tribute-like system of campaign donations unique to the US. The independence of the effort forgoes the political left and shifts the traditional left-right fight toward the more revolutionary-inclined ‘up versus down’ or ‘the people against the elite’. This means that people both on the right and left share a common theme, however much they might still disagree with one another on all other aspects of life.

In simpler words, both conservative and liberal Americans now suffer the same fate economically, and are united on a simple-to-understand subject as the Epstein files. One could pose the left has finally — and somewhat ironically — also wizened up to the negative economic effects of a detached elite, as the conservative Heartland voters have already been experiencing since the Eighties, shifting their jobs overseas, left hanging by a detached Washington on both sides of the political divide. 

The word oligarch… and the elite

And that brings us to that deeply revolution-friendly word oligarch, which has now become commonplace too. This term of ‘oligarch’ might actually be one of the strongest indicators of revolution. The term is championed by senator Sanders, who may caucus with the Dems but is a rare independent (drawing the biggest crowds right now), and as such just as welcome on Joe Rogan’s show as everywhere else. 

Here’s the kicker: up to a few months ago, that word ‘oligarch’ may have been used on the streets. But in media channels, it simply did not appear. It was not there. Yet now I’ve observed, in the space of just two months in winter of 2025, it started to appear everywhere in mainstream media.

What isn’t particularly helpful is that oligarch Musk shot himself in the foot during his tenure in the administration, severely damaging the narrative of him being an intelligent businessman. The drug addiction indicates that he himself doesn't seem to believe that anymore either. The corruption, like the gift of an airplane, a crypto dinner at the White House, or government data-theft by tech bros, now happens in broad daylight, fueling the story of oligarchy openly and blatantly. And that Peter Thiel is siphoning off citizen data, without any good legal basis, into a military friendly database of his company Palantir even led to a truly bizarre, previously unthinkable media signal.

The Epstein and Deep State twists come in…

The entire raison d’être of the extreme right, including their desire to arm themselves, is the deep state conspiracy theory: the ‘army’ of civil servants that is supposed to harm ordinary Americans. However, this administration has now linked all kinds of personal data together, by decree of the president, against the separation of powers, forgoing checks and balances even while he has a full blown right-wing congress at his disposal.

In other words, their worst nightmare is now coming true: a government siphoning off their information without any guardrails. It fuels the ‘Big Brother is watching you’ story in their minds, channeling both Orwellian and Ayn Randian fears, deep seated in American minds everywhere. Far-right leader Enrique Tarrio, a Jan 6st organizer and convict, pardoned by Trump himself, even tweeted: “If that’s not the deep state, what is?”

And then, irony of ironies, there is the bizarre Epstein twist. The conspiracy theory of a pedophile network surrounding Trump his self-proclaimed best friend Jeffrey Epstein, who under oath in a civil case (!) refused to answer the question if Trump had ever partied with minors, all of a sudden seems much more likely to be true, with information in the public sphere of over a thousand young and underage girls likely involved, and hundreds of visits to that private island, with many influential people in that private jet.

This, you must understand, is the very pinnacle of the MAGA movement; the idea of an evil cabal of politicians and celebrities being pedophiles and covering it up. They just thought it would be lefties. Think again... now the 'righties' administration itself is covering it up by denying there’s a list… while the attorney general herself has told us the ‘list is on her desk’ and former Epstein lawyer Dershowitz revealing he knows the list. Elon Musk even declared he’s seen Trump on that list, with over a thousand FBI agents reportedly striping Trumps name from the list. Plus, drip after drip more connections are coming to the forefront of Epstein's network, which overlaps clearly with Trump's, while Trump has left a birthday card for Epstein years ago, that strongly suggest he knew and condoned the pedophilia.

Not even the staunchest MAGA follower can deny how fishy that looks, with Wired and ABC news even finding suspicious tampering of the video release of Epstein’s prison cell, indicating that Trumps former DOJ head Bill Bar, who had personally overseen the case, may be caught in a lie on that tape as well. Now Trump, who fueled that theory himself when it was politically advantageous, seems to be at the pointy end of this entire cover up.

And this is where the right is starting to divide. Sure, the terrible killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk has reunited their ranks for a moment, it's the Epstein stuff that keeps the rift open. It is this extreme right wing base who is absolutely incensed by the perceived lack of Epstein transparency, to the point where Trump got ‘ratioed’ (severely commented down) on his own social media platform by his own supporters. Trump, likely on that list with something nefarious, is in the worst catch 22 of his entire political life: he can’t release the list if he’s on it. But he also can’t afford not to. And no matter how much leniency he brings Epsteins co-conspirator Ghislaine Maxwell in her prison sentence, her untrustworthy version of the story won’t make any of this go away. 

And consider this: the theme reflected in the Epstein-files saga is that of the elite. It is an ‘elite versus young girls’ story, laced with an ‘elite political cover-up’ that is indicative of the ‘up vs down’ exploitation tale… and not as the ‘left vs right’ tale many Republicans are still trying to desperately push. Because on this particularly heinous subject, political games just don’t work anymore: stave too far from the victim’s interests as a right-wing representative, even if that is meant to shield Trump… and you’re political toast. No one will vote for you ever again.

A new narrative arises

And then, finally, there is the legal angle. Because the courts won’t give Trump the shield he’s looking for in the Epstein saga. He had hoped that asking for the unsealing of a few insignificant grand jury testimonies would make the saga blow over. The judges called him out however, with wording such as ‘distraction tactics’ or harsher. And this, is a pattern across the board: the lower courts are not budging. 

This leads to something unheard off before: even the pressure on the Trump-friendly Supreme Court, which gave him immunity in the first place, is now fully public. They still give him plenty of room for his policies, even breaking with human rights laws, or basic non-racial discrimination law and more, if they have too. But this highest court also goes directly against the rulings of local and federal judges in almost all cases, bar a handful of rulings from extreme right judges, or a couple of lucky break stays from an appellate court.

The tone and wording in the rulings from these lower courts has changed very conspicuously to what can only be described as utter contempt and bitter ridicule aimed at the government, with that one word ‘unconstitutional’ dominating above all else in the rulings.

As a result, and despite the fact the Supreme Court tied their hands with a ruling that bars all lower courts from issuing nationwide federal injunctions (which they’ve already found a way around with class action suits), a significant part of the judiciary is now, petition after ruling after injunction, openly firing shots across the bow against its highest judges in dismay. Including the highest court their overuse of the shadow docket.

These shots are unmistakable dares to the Supreme Court from their 'lower' colleagues. The fact they are even visible in the first place is already crazy. Respect in the judiciary for these supreme judges has visibly declined and a whole mini revolution of its own seems to be brewing here. Trust in the Supreme Court is eroding rapidly, most of all from other judges. It is creating an incredibly interesting and rare standoff, in which the Supreme Court itself is basically deemed unconstitutional by the lower judges of the country, with that famous law division behemoth of Trump-rejecting Harvard looming in its shadows.

When revolutions are born

All of the above comes together as a narrative that should raise eyebrows everywhere, even in the face of the administrations many, often successful, authoritarian moves. Yet perhaps the most important sign of revolution is that the people’s resistance, still remembering the coup attempt of January 6st and witnessing a fast growing extremism, refuses to be intimidated, not even by marines and national guard in the streets. 

The images we see are crazy, with protestors putting canisters of teargas in their mouths in defiance, or samba dance parties thrown right in front of hundreds of soldiers. That just cannot sit well in these soldiers hearts. 

But as real as the tanks on the streets of America are now, deployed against its own citizens, so is the resistance a tangible, visceral reality. And ICE remains the focal point of all that is wrong with the administration. The ICEBlock app that tracks its movements, is now the number one most downloaded in the app stores. In many cities, ICE can’t even leave the building anymore, or are simply driven out of town, so massive and flaming hot are the crowds turning out against them.

Signs of a revolution

As a writer and musician, graduated on propaganda, I’m trained to observe shifts in language, human emotions and crowd behavior, simply because my work requires it. Right now, I’m seeing notable changes these past few months that I simply did not expect, even in these times. Just like you, I felt cynical that Americans would do something about the rise of dictatorship in their country. I felt they had been lulled to sleep by consumerism and a TV-box filled with heroic stories to calm the masses. 

But I was wrong. 

When you squint your eyes, every time that this administration doubles down, the reaction is of even higher push back. Even when late-night comedian Stephen Colbert got cancelled in a deal to appease the president on the Paramount-CBS merger at the cost of 40 million dollars… the 1.5 billion pay out on acquiring South Park on that network turned total and complete anti-Trump just two days later. 

All of this seems to be leading down a path that has only one of two outcomes: oligarchic dictatorship or a popular uprising overthrowing it. With that surprise twist: the MAGA-right splitting up, and some taking a real role in against the administration. All while the Epstein files are still at large.  

With the late-night hosts leading the way, in the context of severe economic turmoil, a pedophile ring in the foreground and a big beautiful bill in the back, plus a right-wing base making surprising twists, I’m seeing the narrative shift more and more towards that ‘people versus the elite’ story that revolutions are made of. Hopefully peacefully of course, as I cross my fingers that political violence will be down to a minimum.

Could it be that after all these decades of corruption, first impacting the conservative Heartlanders, and now the liberals in the bigger cities, America just finally seems angry enough to overthrow its elite? 

A Revolutionary Perfect Storm

Again, to what extent they will succeed, I really can’t say. And in all the chaos, it may stretch well into America’s 250th anniversary (2026), ironically celebrating when it repelled the king of that age, as it is fighting this one. Or I could be wrong all together, as the outsider’s view can sometimes also miss what’s happening on the ground.

Yet, the re-districting in Texas… the deployment of the national guard… it just reeks of utter desperation. Incredibly desperate moves in an effort to forcefully change and control the narrative. And that alone, is an indicator of just how nervous this administration must be. Because if you don’t expect to be overthrown… why put soldiers on the streets? 

From where I’m sitting, the signals are all there. Moreover, I think this administration sees them too. They are aware that the signals of civil revolt are rising in a country that has had its fair share of success with revolution, popular uprising and civil changes in the past. And this awareness will lead them on an even more desperate dictatorial path, which will fuel the ‘up vs down’ narrative even more. And with it, the resistance. Including, increasingly, on the right.

As a result, my money is no longer on that platitude ‘it will be a new civil war’. I've tacked away from that narrative. I’m placing my bet on revolution.

Many a king in the past didn’t see this many omens before they were overthrown. A perfect storm. While the hurricane season is just about to begin. And the Texas floods have already shown us what happens then.

Without federal funding.

Love, as always,

Rogier

(And check out my book The Whole Story — The Ultimate Guide to Storytelling).

The Whole Story - Storytelling Guide - Rogier van Kralingen